Alternative method to predict the Break-Even oil price for Financial Sustainability Goals: Evidence from Algeria under Black-Scholes model

Abstract

We aimed to sort-out an alternative method to predict the Break-even oil price using the benchmark model Black-Sholes. The investigation based on daily oil prices data covering the period of 02/01/2013 to 21/09/2020. The main results highlighted a significant and strong correlation between the fiscal breakeven prices based on the Black-Scholes model and the external breakeven price, with a weak correlation with the IMF’s fiscal breakeven prices, which means that the Black-Scholes model is outperforming to predict the fiscal oil prices in comparison with the IMF method. The findings also indicated a negative correlation between the B-S and the reference prices indicated in Algeria's public budget.